{"dataset":"hormuz-oil-market-adjustment-signals","title":"Oil-market adjustment signals during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption","reviewed_at":"2026-07-31","methodology":"Selected non-overlapping observations are preserved with their original units and periods. Values must not be added together because they measure different parts of the oil balance and different time windows.","sources":[{"name":"International Energy Agency market readjustment commentary","url":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"name":"International Energy Agency Strait of Hormuz overview","url":"https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz"}],"fields":{"direction":"tighter means a signal of reduced immediate availability; offsetting means a response that can reduce pressure","value":"Numeric value reported by the cited source","unit":"Original measurement unit","period":"Time window associated with the value"},"rows":[{"id":"hormuz-flow-mar-may-2026","metric":"Average oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz","direction":"tighter","value":2.7,"unit":"million barrels per day","period":"March-May 2026 average","comparison":"Around 20 million barrels per day before the conflict","note":"A physical-flow shock. Vessel counts and oil volumes are related but are not interchangeable.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"id":"global-inventory-draw-2026","metric":"Average global oil inventory draw","direction":"offsetting","value":3.8,"unit":"million barrels per day","period":"Average since the conflict began through the source review period","comparison":"Additional supply made available from previously stored oil","note":"Inventory withdrawals can cushion a current supply loss, but stocks are finite.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"id":"iea-emergency-release-may-2026","metric":"IEA collective emergency stock release flow","direction":"offsetting","value":2.5,"unit":"million barrels per day","period":"May 2026","comparison":"Part of a 400-million-barrel collective action","note":"The daily flow is a temporary response and is not a permanent replacement for Hormuz transit.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"id":"china-import-reduction-feb-may-2026","metric":"Reduction in China crude oil imports","direction":"offsetting","value":4.6,"unit":"million barrels per day","period":"February-May 2026","comparison":"A 40% reduction over the period","note":"Lower purchases reduced immediate competition for replacement barrels.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"id":"saudi-yanbu-exports-early-june-2026","metric":"Saudi crude oil exports from Yanbu","direction":"offsetting","value":5,"unit":"more than million barrels per day","period":"Early June 2026","comparison":"About 2 million barrels per day before the conflict","note":"The East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminal bypass the Strait of Hormuz.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"},{"id":"global-demand-forecast-2026","metric":"IEA forecast change in global oil demand","direction":"offsetting","value":-1.1,"unit":"million barrels per day year over year","period":"Full-year 2026 forecast in the source","comparison":"Before the conflict, the IEA forecast growth of 0.85 million barrels per day","note":"Demand destruction and conservation can reduce upward price pressure even while physical flows remain impaired.","sourceName":"International Energy Agency","sourceUrl":"https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock"}]}