Strait of Hormuz data guide
How Much Oil Can Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?
A sourced comparison of Saudi, UAE, and Iranian bypass pipelines, usable spare capacity, Strait of Hormuz flows, and why oil pipelines cannot replace LNG shipping.
Primary sources reviewed:
Short answer
Not completely. The EIA's 2025 infrastructure assessment put available Saudi and UAE bypass capacity at about 2.6 million barrels per day. For scale, that is roughly 13% of the EIA's separate estimate of 20.7 million barrels per day moving through Hormuz in 4Q25. The figures cover different periods and should not be read as a current replacement rate.
Numbers that must not be confused
20.7 million b/d
Hormuz oil flow in 4Q25
EIA estimate
14.6 million b/d
Hormuz oil flow in 1Q26
EIA estimate with substantial AIS uncertainty
2.6 million b/d
Available Saudi and UAE bypass capacity
EIA's 2025 infrastructure assessment
7.3 Bcf/d
Hormuz LNG flow in 1Q26
Cannot be replaced by crude pipelines
Main bypass pipelines
Design capacity is not the same as actual throughput or spare capacity available today.
| Route | Capacity cited by EIA | Outlet | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi East-West pipeline | 5.0 million b/d | Red Sea coast | It was temporarily expanded to 7.0 million b/d in 2019, but not all nameplate capacity is spare capacity. |
| UAE Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline | 1.8 million b/d | Fujairah, Gulf of Oman | It bypasses Hormuz but primarily carries the UAE's own crude. |
| Iran Goreh-Jask pipeline | 0.3 million b/d effective | Jask, Gulf of Oman | EIA said exports were below 0.07 million b/d in summer 2024 and stopped after September 2024. |
Why design capacity is not spare capacity
A pipeline may already be moving other barrels, while pumps, storage tanks, export terminals, and loading schedules must all support additional flows. A 5-million-b/d pipeline therefore does not mean 5 million new barrels can be added during a crisis. EIA estimated about 2.6 million b/d of then-available spare capacity across the Saudi and UAE routes, not their combined nameplate capacity.
What oil pipelines cannot replace
- LNG exports from Qatar and other Gulf producers
- All crude and petroleum-product flows from every exporter
- Ship, insurance, port, or storage disruptions
- Capacity already committed to existing pipeline traffic
What to check for the current situation
Actual terminal loadings
Check loadings and vessel queues at Fujairah and Red Sea export terminals.
AIS and satellite evidence
Use vessel positions cautiously. EIA warns that Hormuz-area AIS data became especially unreliable after late February 2026.
Operator and government notices
Cross-check pipeline utilization and terminal restrictions against official statements.
Prices and freight
Look for confirmation in physical crude prices, tanker freight, and insurance costs.
Data limitationEIA says its 2026 Hormuz estimates are revised frequently and carry substantial uncertainty because AIS signals can be absent or manipulated. These figures are dated comparison points, not a guarantee of current transit or pipeline availability.
Primary sources
Frequently asked questions
Can bypass pipelines fully replace the Strait of Hormuz?
No. EIA's 2025 assessment put usable Saudi and UAE bypass capacity at about 2.6 million b/d, only a fraction of normal oil flows through Hormuz.
Is pipeline design capacity the same as spare capacity?
No. Existing use, pumps, storage, terminals, maintenance, and operating conditions determine how much additional flow is available.
Can Qatar's LNG use these oil pipelines?
No. Crude pipelines cannot replace LNG shipping. LNG requires separate liquefaction, storage, and transport infrastructure.