The Hormuz Letter

BREAKING: Trump says the US is going to carry out a "very hard" round of fresh strikes against Iran "to beat the fucking shit out of them," stronger than before, because now "it's our turn," and "they know it’s coming." This comes directly after Israeli PM Netanyahu met with US Defense Secretary Hegseth in Washington today.

BREAKING: Footage shows crews working to put out a fire on the US-owned floating platform in Egypt following a drone attack, with initial reports Iran struck it. https://t.co/sFpRt2nfSD

BREAKING: US commercial crude oil draw of –7.167M barrels this week, the largest in 6 weeks massively beating expectations of a +1M build, and inventories at lowest since 2018, per EIA. Including the SPR draw, the total US crude drop is roughly 11M barrels.

BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on all commercial ships from any country sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with China's shipping fleet to be fully exempted from the fee system, per Reuters. Iranian officials discussed the fee plan with Houthi representatives during meetings in Iran this month.

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's Ghalibaf says Iran's ballistic missile wave and direct hit on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan tonight was a preemptive strike to neutralize the joint Trump-Netanyahu war plan being discussed at the White House today. The source adds Iran deceived the US using the ongoing Iran-Oman talks, with the US having thought Oman mediation had reduced Iranian threat and not anticipating this attack.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge more than 5% following Iran's ballistic missile wave and direct hit on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Iran says it is now "fully prepared for all-out war." https://t.co/2wmWLoOv4v

BREAKING: China has directly negotiated with Yemen's Houthis to enable Chinese tankers exclusive preferences for safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthi maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with Chinese officials clearing each vessel individually with the Houthis and both sides informing Iran of their actions, per Reuters citing 6 sources including a senior Iranian official. At least 4 tankers have already loaded Saudi crude bound for China and transited the Bab el-Mandeb since the Houthi restrictions were announced. China is seeking to plug the supply gap caused by Iran's effective Hormuz closure by keeping oil exports flowing from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals, principally Yanbu.

BREAKING: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war state, and that no ceasefire, deal, or a resumption of war will change that, per Tasnim. Deputy FM Gharibabadi says the Strait is "part of Iran's national security and is a defensive capability for Iran. It is the new nuclear weapon for us." Gharibabadi also warns any European ship and warship approaching the Strait of Hormuz is a legitimate target for Iran.

BREAKING: Iran says contrary to Trump's claims, it has not made any requests for negotiations or ceasefire with the US in the past 17 days, with Deputy FM Gharibabadi saying instead the US has desperately requested dialogue with Iran and sent a message through Oman promising not to take military action against Iran, per Tasnim. Gharibabadi also reveals the Omanis wanted to bring in a country to clear mines from the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz but Iran rejected it.

BREAKING: New high-resolution satellite imagery shows major damage to the Abqaiq oil processing facility, the world's largest crude oil stabilization plant processing 7% of global oil supply, and a massive black plume of smoke rising following drone attacks, per Sentinel-2 imagery. Saudi Aramco has suspended all operations and triggered emergency flaring across multiple production sites.

BREAKING: A massive column of smoke is rising from Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility, the world's largest and the eastern hub of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, with multiple impacts in the past few hours. With both ends of the East-West Pipeline now damaged and burning (Abqaiq in the east and Yanbu port infrastructure in the west), Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypass export strategy has now been cut.

BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis announce multiple drone strikes on several targets and sensitive points in the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port, in response to Saudi drones breaching Yemeni airspace, per Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree. This comes after today’s drone attacks on the Abqaiq oil refinery.

BREAKING: Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery has been struck by drones, causing a massive fire at the facility and the East-West Pumping Station. NASA FIRMS satellite imagery confirms extensive fire activity at the site. Abqaiq is the world’s largest crude oil stabilization plant, processing 5-7% of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran-backed resistance groups in Iraq for the attack, begun emergency flaring at multiple production sites, and says it reserves the right to respond.

BREAKING: Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil refinery is still burning more than 2 days after being struck by Houthi ballistic missiles, with a massive 77km smoke trail visible on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery today. https://t.co/UzQ7o1vVES

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump‘s claims of ongoing negotiations, with Iran's Foreign Ministry declaring it is "not engaged in any negotiations with the United States" and says Iran has not requested to restart talks because "it's not in our DNA," instead the US has requested talks, per Tasnim. Iran also reaffirms the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not changed and the Strait remains completely closed to all lanes.

BREAKING: Iran has directly rejected any new passage or route through the Strait of Hormuz, demanding potential talks to only proceed if the Strait is addressed first to affirm it remains under Iran's full control, frozen funds release second, and the nuclear issue last, per Al Arabiya.

BREAKING: An oil tanker has exploded after colliding with an Iranian naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz due to the ship deviating from the Iran-designated route, per Tasnim. This comes as Trump claims major progress is being made in negotiations with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: The oil tanker NEW PRIME which was en route to Yanbu has just diverted toward the Cape of Good Hope after stopping 4 days ago, making it the first-ever tanker detour of its kind since the war began due to the Yemeni Houthi blockade of Saudi ports. This significant detour adds 11 days to the tanker’s journey to Yanbu.

BREAKING: Iran warns Zelenskyy and strongly condemns Ukraine's drone strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea early this morning, resulting in the death of one sailor and injury of another, per Iran's Foreign Ministry. Ukraine claims the vessel was under international sanctions for transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia. Iran calls the strike "a violation of Article 2, Paragraph 4 of the UN Charter and an act of aggression that can further fuel and expand the conflict," warning that "the responsibility for the consequences of the Ukrainian regime's leader's adventurism will lie with that regime and its supporters and instigators."

BREAKING: The United States has requested a new temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the collapsed and suspended Memorandum of Understanding, with discussions also expected to include Yemen and Trump seeking to make the Houthis part of it, per sources. Iran is highly unlikely to accept the US offer, having comprehensively rejected all negotiations throughout this week and confirmed it won’t start negotiations under any circumstances, while Trump simultaneously announced the US is about to carry out a ‘massive attack’ on Iran ‘bigger than any attack ever carried out before.‘