Saudi Arabia in a Bind in Yemen; Limited Options, High Costs

Saudi Arabia in a Bind in Yemen; Limited Options, High Costs 🔹CNN News Network: This week, the Ansar Allah movement seized the strategic island of Perim at the entrance to the Red Sea, along with the port city of Mocha, and is seeking to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the key energy routes in the world. 🔹Shortly after, the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was shut down following drone attacks from Iraqi territory; since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran War, Saudi Arabia had diverted about 5 million barrels of oil per day from this pipeline. Unequal Battle on Paper 🔹On paper, the conflict between wealthy Saudi Arabia with its equipped and modern army versus a poor group in Yemen seems unequal. However, the Houthis have proven that it is extremely difficult to dislodge them. This group has spent years advancing its military tactics, and its demands have remained consistent: an end to Saudi Arabia's economic blockade on the areas under their control. 🔹Nasr al-Din Amer, head of the Saba news agency, told CNN that the Houthis will continue to apply "pressure" on Saudi Arabia to "break the unjust 12-year blockade." Limited Options for Riyadh 🔹"Gianluca Bianco" from the European Council on Foreign Relations told CNN: "Saudi Arabia truly has limited options in its conflict with the Houthis." One option is to escalate tensions, but this could lead to an endless conflict similar to the Yemeni civil war, which has turned the country into the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. U.S. Reluctance to Intervene 🔹The U.S. is unlikely to intervene militarily against the Houthis, especially amid the Hormuz crisis, the midterm elections, and internal discussions about resource use. Trump said on Saturday that the Houthis contacted his administration and indicated they did not want the U.S. directly involved. A source said that the Saudi Crown Prince spoke with Trump twice on Thursday, asking him to attack the Houthis, but Trump declined. Nevertheless, the U.S. has sent about 100 military advisors to Saudi Arabia. End of Political Solutions 🔹Bianco stated that Saudi Arabia has "exhausted political solutions." Even if Riyadh reaches an agreement with the Houthis, Al-Basha says this will likely mean "complete surrender" to their demands. Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi analyst, stated that the Yemeni government's military campaign against the Houthis has already been underway and is expected to significantly escalate in the coming days. However, he stressed that the Saudis will not launch a full-scale war without "strong, sustained, and clear international support." Ambiguous Future 🔹It is unclear when Saudi Arabia will initiate its next retaliatory action, but its consequences are expected to extend beyond the borders of Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Al-Basha said: "The Saudis are under attack, from the Houthis, from the Iraqi Islamic Resistance – you have no options. I wouldn’t want to be in their place."