20.9m
EIA 1H25 total oil flow · b/d
Volume arithmetic from EIA, IEA, and U.S. DOE source data
Hormuz Closure Supply Gap and Emergency Stock Calculator
Calculate a Hormuz oil supply gap from EIA flow and bypass data, then compare it with the IEA's 400-million-barrel collective release at its observed May 2026 rate.
EIA, IEA, and U.S. DOE sources reviewed 2026-07-31 · flow baseline 1H25
DEFAULT SCENARIO
At the observed May rate, the IEA release offsets 75 million barrels of a 486-million-barrel 30-day gap
Subtract the EIA's 4.7 million b/d disruption-bypass capacity from its 20.9 million b/d 1H25 flow baseline. The remaining 16.2 million b/d becomes 486 million barrels over 30 days. Applying the IEA collective action's observed May rate of 2.5 million b/d offsets 75 million barrels and leaves 411 million barrels.
This does not put all 400 million barrels on the market on day one. Country timelines and grades differ; the comparison simply holds the published May delivery rate constant.
14.7m
Crude and condensate · b/d
6.1m
Petroleum products · b/d
4.7m
EIA 2026 disruption bypass capacity · b/d
Change the assumptions
- Flow affected
- 20.9
- million b/d
- Offset by bypass
- 4.7
- million b/d · 22.5%
- Unoffset daily gap
- 16.2
- million b/d
- Cumulative supply gap
- 486
- million barrels
Apply the IEA collective stock release to the same period
This simple scenario applies the May 2026 observed rate of 2.5 million b/d to the 400-million-barrel collective action agreed by the IEA in March.
- Stock release offset in period
- 75
- million barrels
- Share of cumulative gap offset
- 15.4%
- Cumulative gap after release
- 411
- million barrels
- Daily gap remaining during release
- 13.7
- million b/d
- Nominal duration of 400m barrels
- 160
- days
This does not place all 400 million barrels on the market on day one. The IEA said releases would follow each country's circumstances, and the observed collective rate reached 2.5 million b/d in May. The DOE's roughly 13-day delivery time applies to the U.S. SPR, so it is not imposed on every IEA barrel here.
Applied baseline: 400 million barrels total · 2.5 million b/d
Calculate U.S. SPR and IEA 90-day cover separately →This is transparent volume arithmetic using a flow baseline and a bypass assumption. It does not forecast production, inventories, demand, port constraints, or oil prices.
Formula
(20.9 million b/d × disruption share) − applied bypass = unoffset daily gap
The cumulative gap is the daily gap multiplied by duration. The emergency-stock offset is capped by both the IEA's observed May 2026 collective rate of 2.5 million b/d and the total 400-million-barrel action.
Baselines taken from expert source material
Hormuz oil flow
20.9 million barrels/day
The EIA's 1H25 average based on Vortexa tanker tracking and EIA calculations.
Open EIA source ↗Bypass capacity during disruption
4.7 million barrels/day
The EIA's March 2026 update for the combined capacity that the Saudi East-West and UAE Abu Dhabi pipelines could provide during a disruption.
Open EIA source ↗Spare capacity in the 2025 assessment
2.6 million barrels/day
The EIA's earlier estimate of spare capacity available at that time. It remains a separate preset because its scope and reference date differ from 4.7 million b/d.
Open EIA source ↗IEA collective emergency-stock action
400 million barrels
The amount agreed by all 32 IEA members in March 2026. The IEA said barrels would be made available over timelines appropriate to each member's circumstances.
Open IEA decision ↗Observed IEA collective rate in May
2.5 million barrels/day
The rate reported in the IEA's June analysis by its oil-industry and market specialists.
Open IEA expert analysis ↗Time for U.S. SPR oil to enter the market
13 days
The U.S. DOE says SPR oil takes about 13 days after a Presidential decision to enter the U.S. market. This U.S.-specific delay is not applied to every IEA barrel.
Open U.S. DOE source ↗What the result does not include
- ✓ Current observed traffic and cargo-level loadings
- ✓ Production cuts or additional exports from other terminals
- ✓ Commercial inventories or demand reductions
- ✓ Member-by-member release dates, grades, and transport speeds
- ✓ Actual constraints at pipelines, pumps, tanks, and terminals
- ✓ Qatari and Emirati LNG disruption, which crude pipelines cannot replace
- ✓ Oil prices, freight rates, insurance, or security prices
Frequently asked questions
How much oil would be affected if the Strait of Hormuz closed?
The EIA's 1H25 baseline is 20.9 million barrels per day. That is not automatically the final supply loss because bypass pipelines, inventories, production responses, and demand must be assessed separately.
Can all 4.7 million b/d be rerouted immediately?
It is not guaranteed. The EIA describes capacity the two routes could provide during a disruption. Actual additional flow depends on existing use, pumps, storage, terminals, and operating decisions.
Why are both 2.6 and 4.7 million b/d shown?
The 2.6 figure was the EIA's 2025 estimate of spare capacity available at that time. The 4.7 figure is the EIA's 2026 estimate of capacity the two routes could provide during disruption. Their scope and dates differ.
Did all 400 million barrels enter the market immediately?
No. The IEA said countries would release stocks according to national circumstances. The collective action ramped gradually and was supplying 2.5 million b/d in May 2026. The calculator holds that observed rate constant.
Does U.S. SPR oil arrive immediately after a decision?
No. The U.S. DOE says it takes about 13 days after a Presidential decision for SPR oil to enter the U.S. market. That U.S.-specific timing is not assumed for every IEA member.
Does the result predict oil prices?
No. Prices also reflect inventories, emergency stocks, replacement supply, demand, freight, insurance, and expectations for normalization. The calculator only exposes its volume assumptions.