Javan Newspaper: Iran will pay a cost if it exerts pressure in the Strait of…

Javan Newspaper: Iran will pay a cost if it exerts pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, but its bargaining power will increase. Ali Alavi wrote in Javan Newspaper: 🔹 Inside Iran, the question "What will be the future of Hormuz?" is directly tied to the livelihood of the people, oil revenues, and the country’s ability to withstand external pressures. 🔹 On a global level, the answer to this puzzle will determine the trajectory of inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical stability for the coming months. 🔹 To understand who will narrate the future and whether Iran will capitulate first or the U.S. and regional countries, it is necessary to address the question: if the Strait of Hormuz is open and the U.S. believes it is under control, why does the price of oil continue to soar and why is Washington so worried? 🔹 Oil prices are rising because the market believes that the stability of this waterway has been permanently disrupted. The U.S. claim about the strait being open is a momentary military assertion, but the market looks at the sustainability of that condition. 🔹 Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a stark acknowledgment of the U.S.'s inability to indirectly control the strait. 🔹 Oil prices are contingent on the probability of future disruption, not the current situation. 🔹 The U.S. may have become less dependent on Hormuz oil, but its allies are not. The increase in oil prices generates global inflation that will also bounce back to the U.S. 🔹 If the U.S. does not respond, its deterrence will weaken, and if it does respond, a cycle of retaliation will be activated. This means the U.S. is trapped in a costly game. 🔹 It is predicted that this situation will continue until the U.S. midterm elections (November 2026) and possibly until 2027. 🔹 The issue of Hormuz is no longer about being open or closed; the reliability of passage has become the issue. 🔹 The Strait of Hormuz is not only about oil; Qatar’s gas export is also at stake, which means inflation in Europe. 🔹 If Iran exerts pressure, it will incur costs, but it has leverage in bargaining. The U.S. incurs losses in both options of responding or not responding. The market is fearful from all three sides.